How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Colonia Moscardó, at 49.6%. The other outcomes represent 50.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 28.4% · Draw: 22% · Away win: 49.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Rayo Vallecano II 1431; Colonia Moscardó 1556. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 10:45
Rayo Vallecano II
Elo 1431
1
-
1
Colonia Moscardó
Elo 1556
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
-125
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Rayo Vallecano II1431
Colonia Moscardó1556
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Rayo Vallecano II
0Draws
2Colonia Moscardó
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
28%
Draw
22%
Away
50%
Both Teams to Score
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
23%
Draw
36%
Away
41%
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.