How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Castuera, at 40.4%. The other outcomes represent 59.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 40.4% · Draw: 24% · Away win: 35.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Castuera 1474; Llerenense 1575. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 11:00
Castuera
Elo 1474
0
-
0
Llerenense
Elo 1575
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-101
Elo rating comparison
Castuera1474
Llerenense1575
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Castuera
—Draws
—Llerenense
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
40%
Draw
24%
Away
36%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
WRONG
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
35%
Draw
39%
Away
26%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
WRONG
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.