How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cabeza Buey, at 47.9%. The other outcomes represent 52.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 29.5% · Draw: 22.7% · Away win: 47.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Santa Amalia 1411; Cabeza Buey 1588. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 16:00
Santa Amalia
Elo 1411
3
-
3
Cabeza Buey
Elo 1588
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-177
H2H (1)
0H
0D
1A
Elo rating comparison
Santa Amalia1411
Cabeza Buey1588
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Santa Amalia
0Draws
1Cabeza Buey
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
29%
Draw
23%
Away
48%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
21%
Draw
41%
Away
38%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.