How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Alianza Lima, at 62.1%. The other outcomes represent 37.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 17.7% · Draw: 20.2% · Away win: 62.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: UCV Moquegua 1515; Alianza Lima 1752. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 18:15
UCV Moquegua
Elo 1515
0
-
1
Alianza Lima
Elo 1752
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-237
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
UCV Moquegua1515
Alianza Lima1752
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0UCV Moquegua
0Draws
2Alianza Lima
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
62% conf.
CORRECT
Home
18%
Draw
20%
Away
62%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Home Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
22%
Draw
37%
Away
41%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.