How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is SC Braga, at 58.9%. The other outcomes represent 41.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 18.3% · Draw: 22.8% · Away win: 58.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Nacional 1655; SC Braga 2060. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 18:00
Nacional
Elo 1655
1
-
0
SC Braga
Elo 2060
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-404
Elo rating comparison
Nacional1655
SC Braga2060
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Nacional
—Draws
—SC Braga
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
59% conf.
WRONG
Home
18%
@ 6.43
Draw
23%
@ 4.17
Away
59%
@ 1.50
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
@ 1.97
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Clean Sheet
87% conf.
WRONG
Yes
13%
No
87%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
84%
@ 1.11
No
16%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
18%
@ 6.16
Draw
48%
@ 2.27
Away
34%
@ 2.01
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
@ 1.35
No
37%
HT Over 1.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
75%
@ 1.25
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.87
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
100% conf.
WRONG
Yes
0%
No
100%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.