How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is SE Belford Roxo, at 66.1%. The other outcomes represent 33.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 66.1% · Draw: 23.3% · Away win: 10.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: SE Belford Roxo 1515; Barra Mansa 1362. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Carioca B2 · Monday, Oct 26 2026
· 18:00
SE Belford Roxo
Elo 1515
3
-
1
Barra Mansa
Elo 1362
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+154
Elo rating comparison
SE Belford Roxo1515
Barra Mansa1362
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—SE Belford Roxo
—Draws
—Barra Mansa
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
66% conf.
CORRECT
Home
66%
Draw
23%
Away
11%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Home Clean Sheet
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance 1X
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
89%
No
11%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Half-Time Result
51% conf.
CORRECT
Home
51%
Draw
37%
Away
12%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.