How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cardoso Moreira, at 44.4%. The other outcomes represent 55.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.4% · Draw: 30.1% · Away win: 25.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Cardoso Moreira 1577; Friburguense 1506. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–3. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Carioca B2 · Monday, Oct 26 2026
· 18:00
Cardoso Moreira
Elo 1577
3
-
3
Friburguense
Elo 1506
FT
HT 2-2
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
+71
Elo rating comparison
Cardoso Moreira1577
Friburguense1506
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Cardoso Moreira
—Draws
—Friburguense
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
44%
Draw
30%
Away
25%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
39%
Draw
37%
Away
24%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.