How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Paris Saint Germain, at 71.2%. The other outcomes represent 28.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 71.2% · Draw: 12.5% · Away win: 16.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Paris Saint Germain 2294; Lyon 2084. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ligue 1 · Monday, Oct 26 2026
· 19:30
Paris Saint Germain
Elo 2294
2
-
0
Lyon
Elo 2084
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+210
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Paris Saint Germain2294
Lyon2084
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Paris Saint Germain
0Draws
2Lyon
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
71% conf.
CORRECT
Home
71%
@ 1.39
Draw
12%
@ 5.21
Away
16%
@ 6.90
Both Teams to Score
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
@ 1.55
No
39%
Away Clean Sheet
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
@ 1.10
No
16%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Half-Time Result
62% conf.
WRONG
Home
62%
@ 1.78
Draw
24%
@ 2.81
Away
14%
@ 5.97
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
84%
@ 1.19
No
16%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
90%
@ 1.09
No
10%
Over 2.5 Goals
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
72%
@ 1.35
No
28%
Over 3.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
@ 1.95
No
46%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.