How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cariari Pococi, at 45.4%. The other outcomes represent 54.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 45.4% · Draw: 24.8% · Away win: 29.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Cariari Pococi 1454; Aserri FC 1458. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga de Ascenso · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 00:00
Cariari Pococi
Elo 1454
2
-
1
Aserri FC
Elo 1458
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
-4
H2H (7)
0H
7D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Cariari Pococi1454
Aserri FC1458
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Cariari Pococi
7Draws
0Aserri FC
7 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
45%
Draw
25%
Away
30%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
34%
Draw
43%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.