How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Libertad, at 35.9%. The other outcomes represent 64.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 35.5% · Draw: 28.5% · Away win: 35.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Leones del Norte 1615; Libertad 1725. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga Pro · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 16:30
Leones del Norte
Elo 1615
4
-
1
Libertad
Elo 1725
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
-111
H2H (8)
2H
2D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Leones del Norte1615
Libertad1725
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Leones del Norte
2Draws
4Libertad
8 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
36% conf.
WRONG
Home
36%
Draw
29%
Away
36%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
No
36%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
29%
Draw
41%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
WRONG
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.