How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Atletico Nacional, at 57.4%. The other outcomes represent 42.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 57.4% · Draw: 24.8% · Away win: 17.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Atletico Nacional 1821; Independiente Medellin 1702. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera A · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 23:10
Atletico Nacional
Elo 1821
2
-
1
Independiente Medellin
Elo 1702
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+119
H2H (6)
6H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Atletico Nacional1821
Independiente Medellin1702
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
6Atletico Nacional
0Draws
0Independiente Medellin
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
57% conf.
CORRECT
Home
57%
Draw
25%
Away
18%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
43%
Draw
42%
Away
14%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.