How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Persebaya Surabaya, at 55.8%. The other outcomes represent 44.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 55.8% · Draw: 20.2% · Away win: 24%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Persebaya Surabaya 1762; Persepam Madura Utd 1629. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga 1 · Monday, Oct 26 2026
· 12:00
Persebaya Surabaya
Elo 1762
3
-
1
Persepam Madura Utd
Elo 1629
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+133
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Persebaya Surabaya1762
Persepam Madura Utd1629
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Persebaya Surabaya
0Draws
2Persepam Madura Utd
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
56% conf.
CORRECT
Home
56%
Draw
20%
Away
24%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
42%
Draw
42%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.