How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Negelle Arsi, at 44.1%. The other outcomes represent 55.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.1% · Draw: 31.3% · Away win: 24.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Negelle Arsi 1615; Adama Kenema 1525. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Monday, Oct 26 2026
· 12:00
Negelle Arsi
Elo 1615
1
-
0
Adama Kenema
Elo 1525
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
+89
H2H (3)
3H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Negelle Arsi1615
Adama Kenema1525
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
3Negelle Arsi
0Draws
0Adama Kenema
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
44%
Draw
31%
Away
25%
Both Teams to Score
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
56%
No
44%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
34%
Draw
45%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
HT Over 1.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Over 1.5 Goals
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 3.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.