How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Riga, at 70.3%. The other outcomes represent 29.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 16% · Draw: 13.8% · Away win: 70.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Grobiņa 1614; Riga 2104. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–5. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Virsliga · Monday, Oct 26 2026
· 16:00
Grobiņa
Elo 1614
2
-
5
Riga
Elo 2104
FT
HT 0-4
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
-490
H2H (7)
0H
0D
7A
Elo rating comparison
Grobiņa1614
Riga2104
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Grobiņa
0Draws
7Riga
7 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
70% conf.
CORRECT
Home
16%
Draw
14%
Away
70%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Home Clean Sheet
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
10%
No
90%
Double Chance 1X
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Double Chance X2
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
16%
Draw
40%
Away
44%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Win to Nil
100% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
0%
No
100%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.