How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bolívar, at 78.4%. The other outcomes represent 21.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 78.4% · Draw: 14.8% · Away win: 6.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Bolívar 1878; Universitario de Vinto 1470. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División · Tuesday, Oct 27 2026
· 00:00
Bolívar
Elo 1878
2
-
1
Universitario de Vinto
Elo 1470
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+408
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Bolívar1878
Universitario de Vinto1470
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Bolívar
0Draws
2Universitario de Vinto
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
78% conf.
CORRECT
Home
78%
Draw
15%
Away
7%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Away Clean Sheet
95% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
5%
No
95%
Home Clean Sheet
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Double Chance X2
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Half-Time Result
55% conf.
WRONG
Home
55%
Draw
35%
Away
11%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 3.5 Goals
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Home Win to Nil
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.