How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is 1º de Agosto, at 37.8%. The other outcomes represent 62.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 34.7% · Draw: 27.5% · Away win: 37.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Recreativo da Caála 1588; 1º de Agosto 1797. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Girabola · Tuesday, Oct 27 2026
· 16:15
Recreativo da Caála
Elo 1588
1
-
0
1º de Agosto
Elo 1797
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
-210
Elo rating comparison
Recreativo da Caála1588
1º de Agosto1797
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Recreativo da Caála
—Draws
—1º de Agosto
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
Draw
27%
Away
38%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Away Clean Sheet
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Clean Sheet
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
No
29%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
28%
Draw
44%
Away
29%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.