How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Arsenal, at 47.4%. The other outcomes represent 52.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 32.6% · Draw: 20% · Away win: 47.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Fleetwood Town 1674; Arsenal 2330. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
League Cup · Tuesday, Oct 27 2026
· 20:00
Fleetwood Town
Elo 1674
1
-
1
Arsenal
Elo 2330
PEN
FT 90' 1-1
PEN 5-3
HT 1-0
Predictions evaluated on 90-minute result
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
-656
Elo rating comparison
Fleetwood Town1674
Arsenal2330
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Fleetwood Town
—Draws
—Arsenal
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
33%
Draw
20%
Away
47%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Away Clean Sheet
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
22%
Draw
42%
Away
36%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.