How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sporting CP, at 75.1%. The other outcomes represent 24.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 75.1% · Draw: 17.2% · Away win: 7.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sporting CP 2198; Maritimo 1721. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Taça da Liga · Tuesday, Oct 27 2026
· 20:15
Sporting CP
Elo 2198
2
-
1
Maritimo
Elo 1721
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+476
Elo rating comparison
Sporting CP2198
Maritimo1721
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Sporting CP
—Draws
—Maritimo
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
75% conf.
CORRECT
Home
75%
Draw
17%
Away
8%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Away Clean Sheet
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Home Clean Sheet
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Double Chance 1X
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
97%
No
3%
Double Chance X2
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Half-Time Result
55% conf.
CORRECT
Home
55%
Draw
32%
Away
13%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
No
42%
Over 3.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.