How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Independiente Petrolero, at 60.4%. The other outcomes represent 39.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 60.4% · Draw: 18.7% · Away win: 20.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Independiente Petrolero 1574; ABB 1457. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 23:30
Independiente Petrolero
Elo 1574
4
-
2
ABB
Elo 1457
FT
HT 3-1
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
+117
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Independiente Petrolero1574
ABB1457
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Independiente Petrolero
0Draws
2ABB
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
60% conf.
CORRECT
Home
60%
Draw
19%
Away
21%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
10%
No
90%
Home Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
CORRECT
Home
47%
Draw
35%
Away
18%
HT Both Teams Score
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
28%
No
72%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 1.5 Goals
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
89%
No
11%
Over 2.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 3.5 Goals
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.