How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Pogradeci, at 80.6%. The other outcomes represent 19.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 80.6% · Draw: 13.3% · Away win: 6.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Pogradeci 1872; Oriku 1561. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
1st Division · Wednesday, Oct 28 2026
· 12:30
Pogradeci
Elo 1872
0
-
0
Oriku
Elo 1561
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
+311
Elo rating comparison
Pogradeci1872
Oriku1561
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Pogradeci
—Draws
—Oriku
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
81% conf.
WRONG
Home
81%
Draw
13%
Away
6%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Away Clean Sheet
95% conf.
WRONG
Yes
5%
No
95%
Home Clean Sheet
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance 1X
99% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
99%
No
1%
Double Chance X2
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
Half-Time Result
59% conf.
WRONG
Home
59%
Draw
32%
Away
9%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
No
40%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 3.5 Goals
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Home Win to Nil
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.