How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Al Merreikh, at 39.3%. The other outcomes represent 60.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 34.1% · Draw: 26.6% · Away win: 39.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Police 1575; Al Merreikh 1703. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
National Soccer League · Wednesday, Oct 28 2026
· 13:00
Police
Elo 1575
0
-
1
Al Merreikh
Elo 1703
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-128
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Police1575
Al Merreikh1703
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Police
0Draws
2Al Merreikh
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
CORRECT
Home
34%
Draw
27%
Away
39%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Double Chance X2
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
24%
Draw
45%
Away
31%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
62%
No
38%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.