How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Vipers, at 62.8%. The other outcomes represent 37.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 17.5% · Draw: 19.7% · Away win: 62.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Mbarara City 1443; Vipers 1756. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Wednesday, Oct 28 2026
· 13:00
Mbarara City
Elo 1443
1
-
0
Vipers
Elo 1756
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-312
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Mbarara City1443
Vipers1756
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Mbarara City
0Draws
2Vipers
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
63% conf.
WRONG
Home
17%
Draw
20%
Away
63%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Home Clean Sheet
87% conf.
WRONG
Yes
13%
No
87%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
82%
No
18%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
18%
Draw
42%
Away
41%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
WRONG
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.