How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Belasitsa, at 45.5%. The other outcomes represent 54.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 45.5% · Draw: 23.8% · Away win: 30.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Belasitsa 1455; Chavdar Etropole 1553. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Third League - Southwest · Wednesday, Oct 28 2026
· 12:00
Belasitsa
Elo 1455
4
-
1
Chavdar Etropole
Elo 1553
FT
Home Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-98
Elo rating comparison
Belasitsa1455
Chavdar Etropole1553
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Belasitsa
—Draws
—Chavdar Etropole
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
45%
Draw
24%
Away
31%
Both Teams to Score
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
Home
39%
Draw
36%
Away
25%
HT Both Teams Score
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
HT Over 0.5
80% conf.
Yes
80%
No
20%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 1.5 Goals
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
89%
No
11%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.