How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Panathinaikos, at 66.5%. The other outcomes represent 33.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 66.5% · Draw: 19.3% · Away win: 14.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Panathinaikos 2118; Aris Thessalonikis 1968. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Cup · Wednesday, Oct 28 2026
· 15:30
Panathinaikos
Elo 2118
2
-
1
Aris Thessalonikis
Elo 1968
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
+150
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Panathinaikos2118
Aris Thessalonikis1968
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Panathinaikos
0Draws
0Aris Thessalonikis
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
67% conf.
CORRECT
Home
67%
Draw
19%
Away
14%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
48%
Draw
39%
Away
13%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.