How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Fatih Karagümrük, at 76.4%. The other outcomes represent 23.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 76.4% · Draw: 16.2% · Away win: 7.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Fatih Karagümrük 1809; Somaspor 1487. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Türkiye Kupası · Wednesday, Oct 28 2026
· 12:00
Fatih Karagümrük
Elo 1809
0
-
0
Somaspor
Elo 1487
PEN
FT 90' 0-0
PEN 3-1
HT 0-0
Predictions evaluated on 90-minute result
Home Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+323
Elo rating comparison
Fatih Karagümrük1809
Somaspor1487
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Fatih Karagümrük
—Draws
—Somaspor
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
76% conf.
WRONG
Home
76%
Draw
16%
Away
7%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
88% conf.
WRONG
Yes
12%
No
88%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
97%
No
3%
Double Chance X2
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
24%
No
76%
Half-Time Result
54% conf.
WRONG
Home
54%
Draw
36%
Away
10%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
WRONG
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.