How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is KCCA, at 72.9%. The other outcomes represent 27.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 72.9% · Draw: 19% · Away win: 8.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: KCCA 1707; Lugazi 1442. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Wednesday, Oct 28 2026
· 13:00
KCCA
Elo 1707
2
-
1
Lugazi
Elo 1442
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+265
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
KCCA1707
Lugazi1442
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1KCCA
0Draws
0Lugazi
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
73% conf.
CORRECT
Home
73%
Draw
19%
Away
8%
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Away Clean Sheet
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Home Clean Sheet
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance 1X
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
97%
No
3%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Half-Time Result
49% conf.
WRONG
Home
49%
Draw
41%
Away
10%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.