How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is hodd, at 69.0%. The other outcomes represent 31.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 18.6% · Draw: 12.4% · Away win: 69%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Asane 1637; hodd 1706. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
NM Cupen · Wednesday, Oct 28 2026
· 17:00
Asane
Elo 1637
3
-
0
hodd
Elo 1706
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
-69
H2H (7)
0H
4D
3A
Elo rating comparison
Asane1637
hodd1706
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Asane
4Draws
3hodd
7 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
69% conf.
WRONG
Home
19%
Draw
12%
Away
69%
Both Teams to Score
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
62%
No
38%
Away Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Clean Sheet
90% conf.
WRONG
Yes
10%
No
90%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance X2
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
72%
No
28%
Half-Time Result
53% conf.
WRONG
Home
22%
Draw
25%
Away
53%
HT Both Teams Score
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
HT Over 0.5
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
82%
No
18%
HT Over 1.5
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 1.5 Goals
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
88%
No
12%
Over 2.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
No
29%
Over 3.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Home Win to Nil
92% conf.
WRONG
Yes
8%
No
92%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.