How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Manchester City, at 70.6%. The other outcomes represent 29.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 70.6% · Draw: 17.5% · Away win: 11.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Manchester City 2331; Brighton 2206. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
League Cup · Wednesday, Oct 28 2026
· 19:30
Manchester City
Elo 2331
2
-
2
Brighton
Elo 2206
PEN
FT 90' 2-2
PEN 4-3
HT 1-1
Predictions evaluated on 90-minute result
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+125
Elo rating comparison
Manchester City2331
Brighton2206
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Manchester City
—Draws
—Brighton
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
71% conf.
WRONG
Home
71%
Draw
17%
Away
12%
Both Teams to Score
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Away Clean Sheet
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
47%
Draw
36%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.