How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Heerenveen, at 61.3%. The other outcomes represent 38.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 21% · Draw: 17.7% · Away win: 61.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Excelsior Maassluis 1684; Heerenveen 1893. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
KNVB Beker · Wednesday, Oct 28 2026
· 20:00
Excelsior Maassluis
Elo 1684
0
-
2
Heerenveen
Elo 1893
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-209
Elo rating comparison
Excelsior Maassluis1684
Heerenveen1893
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Excelsior Maassluis
—Draws
—Heerenveen
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
CORRECT
Home
21%
Draw
18%
Away
61%
Both Teams to Score
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
61%
No
39%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
WRONG
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
24%
Draw
35%
Away
41%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Over 1.5 Goals
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
89%
No
11%
Over 2.5 Goals
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 3.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Home Win to Nil
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.