How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sporting Cristal, at 40.8%. The other outcomes represent 59.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 40.8% · Draw: 26.3% · Away win: 32.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sporting Cristal 1741; Alianza Lima 1758. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–2. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División · Thursday, Oct 29 2026
· 20:30
Sporting Cristal
Elo 1741
3
-
2
Alianza Lima
Elo 1758
FT
HT 2-2
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-17
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Sporting Cristal1741
Alianza Lima1758
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Sporting Cristal
2Draws
0Alianza Lima
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
41%
Draw
26%
Away
33%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
No
40%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
31%
Draw
48%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.