How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Fassell, at 45.2%. The other outcomes represent 54.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 45.2% · Draw: 23.4% · Away win: 31.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Fassell 1729; Watanga 1740. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
LFA First Division · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 16:00
Fassell
Elo 1729
1
-
1
Watanga
Elo 1740
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
-11
H2H (4)
0H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Fassell1729
Watanga1740
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Fassell
4Draws
0Watanga
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
45%
Draw
23%
Away
31%
Both Teams to Score
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
31%
Draw
44%
Away
26%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.