How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is BEA Mountain, at 44.6%. The other outcomes represent 55.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.6% · Draw: 20.6% · Away win: 34.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: BEA Mountain 1768; Fassell 1726. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
LFA First Division · Wednesday, Oct 28 2026
· 16:00
BEA Mountain
Elo 1768
2
-
1
Fassell
Elo 1726
FT
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
+42
H2H (2)
1H
1D
0A
Elo rating comparison
BEA Mountain1768
Fassell1726
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1BEA Mountain
1Draws
0Fassell
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
45%
Draw
21%
Away
35%
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
59%
No
41%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
Home
30%
Draw
38%
Away
32%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
Yes
69%
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.