How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Heaven Eleven, at 39.8%. The other outcomes represent 60.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 33.3% · Draw: 26.8% · Away win: 39.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Downtown 1492; Heaven Eleven 1611. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–4. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
LFA First Division · Wednesday, Oct 28 2026
· 13:00
Downtown
Elo 1492
0
-
4
Heaven Eleven
Elo 1611
FT
HT 0-3
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
-119
Elo rating comparison
Downtown1492
Heaven Eleven1611
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Downtown
—Draws
—Heaven Eleven
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
33%
Draw
27%
Away
40%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
No
28%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
24%
Draw
41%
Away
34%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.