How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Tallinna Kalev, at 56.4%. The other outcomes represent 43.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 56.4% · Draw: 19% · Away win: 24.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Tallinna Kalev 1565; Nõmme Kalju II 1390. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Esiliiga A · Thursday, Oct 29 2026
· 17:00
Tallinna Kalev
Elo 1565
3
-
1
Nõmme Kalju II
Elo 1390
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+175
H2H (8)
8H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Tallinna Kalev1565
Nõmme Kalju II1390
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
8Tallinna Kalev
0Draws
0Nõmme Kalju II
8 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
56% conf.
CORRECT
Home
56%
Draw
19%
Away
25%
Both Teams to Score
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Half-Time Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
50%
Draw
28%
Away
22%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
HT Over 1.5
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 1.5 Goals
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
91%
No
9%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.