How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is SC Braga, at 47.9%. The other outcomes represent 52.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.9% · Draw: 26% · Away win: 26.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: SC Braga 2043; Famalicao 1879. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Taça da Liga · Thursday, Oct 29 2026
· 18:45
SC Braga
Elo 2043
2
-
2
Famalicao
Elo 1879
PEN
FT 90' 2-2
PEN 1-3
HT 1-2
Predictions evaluated on 90-minute result
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
+163
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
SC Braga2043
Famalicao1879
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0SC Braga
2Draws
0Famalicao
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
48%
Draw
26%
Away
26%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Half-Time Result
37% conf.
WRONG
Home
37%
Draw
37%
Away
27%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
WRONG
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.