How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Illertissen, at 55.1%. The other outcomes represent 44.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 55.1% · Draw: 19.9% · Away win: 25%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Illertissen 1749; Greuther Fürth II 1647. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Regionalliga - Bayern · Friday, Oct 30 2026
· 18:00
Illertissen
Elo 1749
4
-
0
Greuther Fürth II
Elo 1647
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
+102
Elo rating comparison
Illertissen1749
Greuther Fürth II1647
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Illertissen
—Draws
—Greuther Fürth II
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
55% conf.
CORRECT
Home
55%
Draw
20%
Away
25%
Both Teams to Score
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
No
35%
Away Clean Sheet
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Home Clean Sheet
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
28%
No
72%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
44%
Draw
38%
Away
18%
HT Both Teams Score
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
88%
No
12%
Over 2.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 3.5 Goals
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.