How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is FSV Mainz 05, at 41.6%. The other outcomes represent 58.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 31.5% · Draw: 27% · Away win: 41.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: SV Elversberg 2018; FSV Mainz 05 2070. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Bundesliga · Friday, Oct 30 2026
· 19:30
SV Elversberg
Elo 2018
4
-
1
FSV Mainz 05
Elo 2070
FT
HT 3-0
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-53
Elo rating comparison
SV Elversberg2018
FSV Mainz 052070
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—SV Elversberg
—Draws
—FSV Mainz 05
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
@ 3.20
Draw
27%
@ 3.79
Away
42%
@ 2.05
Both Teams to Score
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
@ 1.44
No
39%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
@ 1.35
No
30%
Half-Time Result
36% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
@ 3.55
Draw
34%
@ 2.43
Away
36%
@ 2.51
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
@ 1.25
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
88%
@ 1.14
No
12%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.51
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
88%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.