How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Chesterfield, at 46.7%. The other outcomes represent 53.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 27.6% · Draw: 25.7% · Away win: 46.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Newport County 1613; Chesterfield 1707. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
League Two · Friday, Oct 30 2026
· 19:45
Newport County
Elo 1613
4
-
1
Chesterfield
Elo 1707
FT
HT 4-0
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Elo Advantage
-94
Elo rating comparison
Newport County1613
Chesterfield1707
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Newport County
—Draws
—Chesterfield
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
28%
Draw
26%
Away
47%
Both Teams to Score
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
72%
No
28%
Half-Time Result
37% conf.
WRONG
Home
28%
Draw
37%
Away
35%
HT Both Teams Score
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
No
42%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.