How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Fafe, at 47.1%. The other outcomes represent 52.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.1% · Draw: 31.2% · Away win: 21.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Fafe 1710; Pacos Ferreira 1576. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga 3 · Friday, Oct 30 2026
· 20:00
Fafe
Elo 1710
3
-
1
Pacos Ferreira
Elo 1576
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
+134
H2H (4)
0H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Fafe1710
Pacos Ferreira1576
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Fafe
4Draws
0Pacos Ferreira
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
CORRECT
Home
47%
Draw
31%
Away
22%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
39%
Draw
46%
Away
15%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
No
40%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.