How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sportivo Barracas, at 43.0%. The other outcomes represent 57.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 32.4% · Draw: 24.6% · Away win: 43%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sacachispas 1429; Sportivo Barracas 1391. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera C · Monday, Oct 26 2026
· 18:00
Sacachispas
Elo 1429
1
-
1
Sportivo Barracas
Elo 1391
PEN
FT 90' 1-1
PEN 4-5
HT 0-1
Predictions evaluated on 90-minute result
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
+39
H2H (4)
0H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Sacachispas1429
Sportivo Barracas1391
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Sacachispas
4Draws
0Sportivo Barracas
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
32%
@ 2.96
Draw
25%
@ 2.79
Away
43%
@ 2.36
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Away Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
@ 1.47
No
40%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.30
No
41%
Half-Time Result
52% conf.
WRONG
Home
25%
@ 3.92
Draw
52%
@ 1.84
Away
24%
@ 3.16
HT Both Teams Score
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
HT Over 0.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
@ 1.57
No
37%
HT Over 1.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
@ 1.52
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.