How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Arouca, at 55.4%. The other outcomes represent 44.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 55.4% · Draw: 21% · Away win: 23.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Arouca 1845; Nacional 1672. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Sunday, Nov 1 2026
· 15:30
Arouca
Elo 1845
vs
Nacional
Elo 1672
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
+173
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Arouca1845
Nacional1672
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Arouca
0Draws
0Nacional
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
55% conf.
Home
55%
Draw
21%
Away
24%
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
Yes
55%
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
Home
43%
Draw
38%
Away
19%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.