How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Manchego, at 62.6%. The other outcomes represent 37.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 62.6% · Draw: 21.7% · Away win: 15.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Manchego 1629; Illescas 1491. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–1. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Saturday, Oct 31 2026
· 17:00
Manchego
Elo 1629
4
-
1
Illescas
Elo 1491
FT
HT 2-1
Elo rating comparison
Manchego1629
Illescas1491
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Manchego
—Draws
—Illescas
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
63% conf.
CORRECT
Home
63%
Draw
22%
Away
16%
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
No
49%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
43%
Draw
40%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
HT Over 1.5
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.