How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Leones Negros UDG, at 65.3%. The other outcomes represent 34.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 65.3% · Draw: 21.1% · Away win: 13.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Leones Negros UDG 1576; Tepatitlán 1419. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga de Expansión MX · Sunday, Nov 1 2026
· 18:00
Leones Negros UDG
Elo 1576
vs
Tepatitlán
Elo 1419
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+157
H2H (1)
0H
1D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Leones Negros UDG1576
Tepatitlán1419
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Leones Negros UDG
1Draws
0Tepatitlán
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
65% conf.
Home
65%
Draw
21%
Away
14%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Half-Time Result
49% conf.
Home
49%
Draw
37%
Away
14%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
64% conf.
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.