How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Concepción, at 41.9%. The other outcomes represent 58.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 41.9% · Draw: 21.9% · Away win: 36.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Concepción 1632; Palestino 1670. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División · Monday, Nov 2 2026
· 23:30
Concepción
Elo 1632
vs
Palestino
Elo 1670
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-39
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Concepción1632
Palestino1670
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Concepción
0Draws
0Palestino
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
Home
42%
Draw
22%
Away
36%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
75% conf.
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
Yes
60%
No
40%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
Home
32%
Draw
41%
Away
27%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
Yes
80%
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
Yes
55%
No
45%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.