How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Independiente Medellin, at 65.7%. The other outcomes represent 34.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 65.7% · Draw: 22.5% · Away win: 11.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Independiente Medellin 1698; Alianza Valledupar 1550. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera A · Sunday, Nov 1 2026
· 23:10
Independiente Medellin
Elo 1698
vs
Alianza Valledupar
Elo 1550
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+148
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Independiente Medellin1698
Alianza Valledupar1550
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Independiente Medellin
0Draws
0Alianza Valledupar
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
66% conf.
Home
66%
Draw
22%
Away
12%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
Home
42%
Draw
44%
Away
14%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
67% conf.
Yes
33%
No
67%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.