How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Plaza Colonia, at 47.6%. The other outcomes represent 52.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.6% · Draw: 28% · Away win: 24.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Plaza Colonia 1554; Tacuarembo 1377. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 22:00
Plaza Colonia
Elo 1554
1
-
1
Tacuarembo
Elo 1377
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
+177
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Plaza Colonia1554
Tacuarembo1377
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Plaza Colonia
0Draws
0Tacuarembo
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
48%
@ 1.55
Draw
28%
@ 3.64
Away
24%
@ 5.44
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.11
No
25%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Half-Time Result
50% conf.
CORRECT
Home
37%
@ 2.12
Draw
50%
@ 2.10
Away
13%
@ 5.90
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
@ 1.41
No
35%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
@ 1.32
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.