How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bayern München, at 46.2%. The other outcomes represent 53.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 31.8% · Draw: 22% · Away win: 46.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Atletico Madrid 2182; Bayern München 2443. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Champions League · Tuesday, Nov 3 2026
· 20:00
Atletico Madrid
Elo 2182
vs
Bayern München
Elo 2443
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
-261
Elo rating comparison
Atletico Madrid2182
Bayern München2443
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Atletico Madrid
—Draws
—Bayern München
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
46% conf.
Home
32%
Draw
22%
Away
46%
Both Teams to Score
61% conf.
Yes
61%
No
39%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
Yes
70%
No
30%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
Home
26%
Draw
48%
Away
26%
HT Both Teams Score
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
50% conf.
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
71% conf.
Yes
71%
No
29%
Over 3.5 Goals
51% conf.
Yes
49%
No
51%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.