How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Barcelona, at 49.9%. The other outcomes represent 50.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 49.9% · Draw: 22.3% · Away win: 27.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Barcelona 2324; Aston Villa 2208. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Champions League · Tuesday, Nov 3 2026
· 20:00
Barcelona
Elo 2324
vs
Aston Villa
Elo 2208
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
+116
Elo rating comparison
Barcelona2324
Aston Villa2208
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Barcelona
—Draws
—Aston Villa
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
Home
50%
Draw
22%
Away
28%
Both Teams to Score
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Away Clean Sheet
88% conf.
Yes
12%
No
88%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
Yes
52%
No
48%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
Home
35%
Draw
38%
Away
27%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 1.5 Goals
87% conf.
Yes
87%
No
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
74% conf.
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 3.5 Goals
57% conf.
Yes
57%
No
43%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.