How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Novo Esporte Clube, at 49.1%. The other outcomes represent 50.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 27.9% · Draw: 23% · Away win: 49.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sao Joao del Rei 1516; Novo Esporte Clube 1546. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 5–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Mineiro - 3 · Friday, Oct 30 2026
· 21:30
Sao Joao del Rei
Elo 1516
5
-
2
Novo Esporte Clube
Elo 1546
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-30
Elo rating comparison
Sao Joao del Rei1516
Novo Esporte Clube1546
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Sao Joao del Rei
—Draws
—Novo Esporte Clube
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
49% conf.
WRONG
Home
28%
Draw
23%
Away
49%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Away Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
70%
No
30%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
26%
Draw
36%
Away
38%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Over 1.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.