How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Venda Nova, at 36.2%. The other outcomes represent 63.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 30.8% · Draw: 33% · Away win: 36.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Nacional AC MG 1505; Venda Nova 1566. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Historical record or date different from the current schedule; it should not be presented as a verified pre-match forecast.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Mineiro - 3 · Friday, Oct 30 2026
· 22:30
Nacional AC MG
Elo 1505
1
-
1
Venda Nova
Elo 1566
FT
HT 0-0
Elo rating comparison
Nacional AC MG1505
Venda Nova1566
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Nacional AC MG
—Draws
—Venda Nova
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
36% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
Draw
33%
Away
36%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
27%
Draw
44%
Away
29%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
69%
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 3.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.